Mattel Inc Stock Performance

MAT Stock  USD 14.95  -0.13  -0.86%   
The firm shows a beta of 0.74, which conveys generally lower market sensitivity than the broad market. As returns on the market increase, Mattel's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding Mattel is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Mattel Inc has a negative expected return of -0.42%.
Risk-Adjusted Performance
Weak
 
Weak
 
Strong
For the recent 90-day horizon, Mattel Inc failed to convert risk into positive risk-adjusted performance. The result matters because weak risk-adjusted return can persist even when isolated price moves briefly look constructive. In spite of unfluctuating performance in the last few months, the stock's basic indicators remain comparatively stable, which may send shares a bit higher in April 2026. The newest uproar may also be a sign of mid-term up-swing for the firm's private investors. Learn More

Actual Historical Performance (%)

 One Day Return
-0.54
 Five Day Return
-0.27
 Year To Date Return
-25.80
 Ten Year Return
-54.08
 All Time Return
601.42
 Last Split Factor
5:4
 Dividend Date
2017-09-15
 Ex Dividend Date
2017-08-21
 Last Split Date
1996-03-04
Begin Period Cash Flow1.4 B
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-154.9 M

Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you had invested $ 2,026 in Mattel Inc on December 26, 2025 and sold it today you would have lost $ 531.00 from holding Mattel Inc or given up 26.21% of portfolio value over 90 days. Mattel Inc is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 3.6836% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. In other words, 33% of stocks are less volatile than Mattel, and above 99% of all equities are expected to generate higher returns over the next 90 days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
This relative risk-return summary reviews how the instrument behaves against its benchmark. It highlights whether the current reward profile compensates for the level of uncertainty assumed. Considering the 90-day investment horizon Mattel is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 4.35 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.11 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly -0.09 per unit of volatility.

Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Mattel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a well-known pattern in finance. Despite this pattern, historical data suggests that some stocks remain persistently mispriced until markets correct.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds moving above the current price in 90 days
14.95 90 days 14.95
under 95
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mattel moving above the current price in 90 days from now are under 95 . Over this horizon, the return distribution for this stock has leaned toward above-current outcomes historically. (The density curve centers on the price range the market has recently treated as most probable for Mattel Stock over the next 90 days).
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Mattel has a beta of 0.74. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mattel's average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during a bear market, the loss from holding Mattel Inc is expected to be smaller as well. Additionally, Mattel Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Mattel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mattel

Numerous approaches exist for forecasting the stock market and estimating future values of Mattel Inc. Although accurate forecasting remains elusive, the process of modeling scenarios is a valuable part of decision-making.
Experienced market participants anticipate that Mattel's price will even out over time. Periods when Mattel's deviates significantly from its historical mean may warrant further fundamental analysis.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.2714.9518.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.0416.7220.40
Details
Analyst
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
17.6119.3621.49
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.030.100.15
Details
Analyzing Mattel in isolation is insufficient for informed investment decisions. This peer-relative view often uncovers mispricing that single-company analysis would miss.

Primary Risk Indicators

The last 10-20 years have been a volatile period for the stock market, and Mattel is no exception. Mattel has experienced periods of rapid price declines followed by equally strong recoveries.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.3625
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.74
σ
Overall volatility
2.41
Ir
Information ratio -0.0978

Investor Alerts and Insights

Automated alerts tied to Mattel help investors stay ahead of material changes in stock conditions. Mattel Inc notifications flag important changes in technical indicators, fundamentals, and market conditions.
Mattel Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Mattel Inc has high historical volatility and very poor performance
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Disposition of 1000 shares by Jason Cardew of Lear at 135.18 subject to Rule 16 b-3

Price Density Drivers

Price dynamics for Mattel Stock are shaped by tension between bullish and bearish positioning among market participants. Key indicators for Mattel capture the primary forces influencing short-term price behavior.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding318.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.2 B

Mattel Fundamentals Growth

Mattel Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of Mattel's future prospects and financial health. Revenue trajectory, earnings quality, profit margins, and leverage levels shape Mattel Stock market performance.

Performance Metrics & Calculation Methodology

Return quality for Mattel evaluates how consistent and repeatable performance has been across periods. Consistent positive returns across rolling windows support confidence in structural performance patterns. Mattel shows ROE of 17.68%, ROA of 5.56%.

Unless otherwise specified, data for Mattel Inc is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. Analyst inputs may be included when coverage is available. Updates may occur throughout the day. Return and risk statistics are calculated from historical price series.

This content is curated and reviewed by:

Rifka Kats - Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Last reviewed on March 25th, 2026